Title:

Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa

Publication Year:
2018
Abstract:

Temperatures over southern Africa have been increasing rapidly over the last five decades, at a rate of about twice the global rate of temperature increase. Further drastic increases, in the order of 6°C by the end of the century relative to the present-day climate, may occur over the central and western interior regions under low-mitigation futures. Moreover, southern Africa is projected to become generally drier under low-mitigation climate change futures. Such changes will leave little room for adaptation in a region that is already characterised as dry and hot. Impacts on crop and livestock farming may well be devastating, and significant changes may occur in terms of vegetation cover in the savannas, particularly in the presence of human-induced land degradation. Under modest to high mitigation, southern Africa will still experience further climate change, but amplitudes of change will be reduced, potentially leaving more room for adaptation. Skilful seasonal forecasts may become an increasingly important adaptation tool in southern Africa, especially when combined with a robust weather station monitoring network.

Publication Title:

Climate change and adaptive land management in southern Africa - assessments, changes, challenges, and solutions

Place:
Göttingen and Windhoek
Editor:
Revermann R, Krewenka KM, Schmiedel U, Olwoch JM, Helmschrot J, Jürgens N
Publisher:
Klaus Hess Publishers
Series Title:
Biodiversity and Ecology
Series Number:
6
Pages:
14-21
Item Type:
Book or Magazine Section
Language:
en