Population trends and conservation status of elephants in Botswana and the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area - A review of elephant aerial surveys, 2010 - 2022
In 2022, an aerial survey for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) was conducted over the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) in southern Africa. KAZA is a 520,000-km² network of protected areas in Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The aerial survey found that KAZA holds ~228,000 elephants, confirming that this is the world’s largest population of savanna elephants and a critical stronghold for this endangered species. In this report, we attempt to place the KAZA results in context by examining trends in elephant populations since the last set of KAZA-wide elephant surveys in 2014-2015. We also report new data on elephant poaching in Botswana. We were able to compare numbers of elephants on the KAZA survey with 2014-2015 surveys in Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe. Overall, numbers of elephants did not change significantly between 2014-2015 and 2022, with an estimated growth rate of 1.2% per year. Carcass ratios, an index of elephant mortality rates, did increase significantly over that time period, growing from 8% to 11% and potentially indicating unsustainable mortality rates. We also examined recent population trends by individual country. In northern Botswana, overall elephant populations have not changed significantly since 2010. Between 2018, the date of the most recent survey prior to the KAZA survey, and 2022, elephant numbers have generally increased in national parks and other protected areas, especially in the Okavango Delta. Numbers have generally decreased in pastoral and agricultural areas. In the Okavango Panhandle, elephant populations have been roughly stable since 2010, in contrast to the Botswana government’s claim of 7.6% growth per year . Elephant trophy hunting in Botswana resumed in 2019. Between 2018 and 2022, numbers of elephants decreased by 25% in areas that were open to hunting and increased by 28% in areas where hunting is not allowed. If these trends continue, the ability of Botswana to produce trophy-quality elephants in hunting areas may be in question.