A burning strategy for semi-arid savanna habitats is suggested by simulating the incidence of lightning fires. Detailed records of the temporal and spatial incidence of fires over a period of ten years form the basis of a predictive model of the natural fire regime in Etosha National Park, Namibia. The proposed approach provides an objective means whereby priority areas are selected for controlled burning each year. An attempt is made to simulate the incidence of fires caused by lightning, based on seasonal rainfall and the time elapsed since last burn, both of which are directly related to the accumulation of combustible material. Keywords: controlled burning, fire, management, rainfall.