Title:
Conservation implications of long-term population trends, environmental correlates and predictive models for Namaqua sandgrouse
Publication Year:
1996
Abstract:
Hunting bag data for Namaqua sandgrouse Pterocles namaqua from an estate near Kimberley, South Africa, for the period 1907-1992 were analysed to investigate population trends, environmental correlates and to develop predictive models for population fluctuations. An apparent population decline between 1950 and 1992 may be an artifact of increased sandgrouse dispersion in response to an increased number of artificial watering points on the estate, and in the surrounding area, during this latter period. Peaks in sandgrouse abundance are significantly negatively correlated with December rainfall and significantly positively correlated with March rainfall. Furthermore, annual sandgrouse abundance and March rainfall showed similar peaks at four-year cycles during 1909-1939. Therefore, a rainfall 'score' which takes cognizance of both December and March rainfall is useful for predicting annual sandgrouse abundance before the forthcoming hunting season. However, correct predictions of low sandgrouse abundance were more common than correct predictions of high sandgrouse abundance. These environmental correlates and predictive models are useful for forecasting the annual viability of commercial hunting of these populations. Keywords: Namaqua sandgrouse, Pterocles namaqua, population trends, environmental correlates, predictive models, sustainable use.
Publication Title:
Biological Conservation
Volume:
75
Issue:
1
Pages:
93 - 101
Item Type:
Journal Article
Language:
en